The rupiah is expected to strengthen slightly in Tuesday’s trading session as most Asian currencies improve. The appreciation is primarily influenced by the Japanese yen, which has regained positive momentum against the U.S. dollar (USD).
Bank Woori Saudara analyst Rully Nova said the situation could provide positive sentiment for the rupiah. According to him, the weakening U.S. dollar index is also creating room for regional currencies, including the rupiah, to strengthen.
The yen’s movement has become one of the market’s main focuses after the Japanese currency briefly strengthened to around 155 yen per U.S. dollar. The appreciation came amid speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could raise interest rates at its policy meeting scheduled for mid-September.
Expectations of a BoJ rate hike have encouraged market participants to increase yen purchases. If the policy is implemented, the interest rate gap between Japan and the U.S. is expected to narrow, potentially increasing the attractiveness of the Japanese currency.
BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda previously indicated his readiness to raise interest rates while considering economic and price developments. However, the direction of U.S. monetary policy remains another important factor being watched by investors.
Markets expect the Federal Reserve (the Fed) to maintain interest rates for the time being. The expectation comes as inflationary pressures in the U.S. begin to ease, giving the central bank room to avoid rushing into policy changes.
Domestically, sentiment toward the rupiah continues to face several challenges. Market participants are paying closer attention to the potential widening of the trade balance deficit, particularly amid rising global oil prices, which could increase dollar requirements for import payments.
Rully said Brent crude oil prices had reached around USD 98 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at around USD 93 per barrel. Higher oil prices could increase the value of energy imports and demand for U.S. dollars.
In addition to energy prices, increased import activity is another factor that could put pressure on the rupiah. According to Rully, the largest demand for dollars comes from the import sector, which recorded a 27 percent year-on-year increase.
Under these conditions, the rupiah’s movement in Tuesday’s trading will be influenced by a combination of external and domestic sentiment. Strengthening regional currencies and a weaker U.S. dollar index provide an opportunity for the rupiah to appreciate, while higher oil prices and dollar demand for imports remain factors that the market needs to monitor.
Dimas Wijaya is a business and finance journalist at RakyatPost with a strong interest in entrepreneurship, startups, digital transformation, and emerging market trends across Southeast Asia. He specializes in covering economic developments, corporate strategies, fintech innovation, and the evolving digital economy. Passionate about data-driven storytelling and accessible journalism, Dimas aims to simplify complex business topics for modern readers while delivering accurate, insightful, and engaging reporting.
